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The Magnificent Seven's dominance poses ever-growing risks

The rise of the Magnificent Seven and their large weighting in US indices has led to debate about concentration risk in markets. Whatever your view, the crowding into these stocks poses several challenges for global investors.

Recession surprise may be in store for the US stock market

Markets are partying like it's 1999, but history suggests that US earnings and economic growth are vulnerable following an interest rate tightening cycle. Investors should prepare their portfolios accordingly.

Are record market highs bullish or bearish?

Stocks have had a barnstorming run of late, breaking to new highs in many markets, as they anticipate imminent cuts to interest rates in the US. Can the run continue, and if so, what are the key signposts to look for?

The impacts of military and geopolitical crises on share markets

The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis, but what normally happens in share markets when conflicts hit and what is the impact of who wins and loses? Here are likely outcomes but the role of China remains uncertain.

What night moves on the US market mean for Aussie stocks

Just how drastic is that 200-point fall in US markets overnight? Data from the last 35 years shows it takes a big swing for the Australian sharemarket to predictably follow a US lead.

How much will you risk to feel comfortable?

The market is asking how much are you willing to pay to feel safe, and the answer is: a lot. Perhaps a better question to ask is: how much are you risking in your quest to feel comfortable?

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

How share buybacks boost the US market

Stock buybacks improve earnings per share, making it look like better company performance. In the US, if buybacks stop for any reason, both management and investors alike will have to shift earnings per share expectations downwards.

The ‘January effect’ in stock markets

For many decades, stock market performance in January consistently outperformed other months of the year, but before you start planning an arbitrage strategy, that horse has bolted.

Once in a lifetime returns from US shares

Not only has the US market returned 39% in Australian dollars over the past 9 months, volatility has not been lower since the mid-2000s. It has been the best run of consistent, high returns in my lifetime.

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

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