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18 January 2025
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The rise of passive investing is unlikely to derail the value of quantitative strategies. Passive investing hasn’t eradicated the irrationality of crowds, leaving pockets of opportunity to outperform indices.
Investors are overexposed to recent winners, namely large cap, growth stocks. As a whole, these stocks are exceptionally expensive, which means investors may need to switch strategies to outperform going forward.
After a hiatus last year, growth stocks are back in vogue as investors search for the 'next big thing'. That makes today's market environment unusually rich in attractive, high dividend-yielding companies.
There's been a 13-year runway of varying degrees of capital allocation that paid little attention to fundamentals and valuation. If there was ever a market environment when quality stocks are expected to perform, it's now.
As market uncertainty continues, it is more important than ever to have a sound investment process. To help with a long-term focus, it may be useful to have some guidelines to fall back on when the market noise gets too loud.
Equity investing comes with volatility that makes many retirees uncomfortable. A focus on income which is less volatile than share prices, and quality companies delivering robust earnings, offers more reassurance.
During this heightened uncertainty, Value stocks have performed relatively well, coinciding with higher inflation. Expensive Growth stocks, hit by slowing growth and materials shortages, have sold off. Where to now?
It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.
The traditional single-period measurement tools such as P/E or EV/EBITDA do not allow for cashflows looking out many years, which are needed to value great companies of the future such as Xilinx, Nvidia and Qualcomm.
The shift in dynamics from growth to value can be seen in the rotation of tech and communications names out of the top 20 performers to be replaced by value-style industrials, energy and financials. Will it continue?
By now, we know 'growth' stocks have outperformed 'value' for many years and investors look to the future, but there are good reasons why the switch is on, especially as value companies emerge from the pandemic.
As the world gradually emerges from the aftermath of COVID-19, many are questioning if now is value’s time to shine? How can value stocks deliver outperformance in today’s environment?
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.