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19 May 2022
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It is a tough time to be investing in growth stocks but there may be ways investors can take advantage of lower prices and be well positioned when the market and interest rates return to normality.
A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.
Fear of missing out in a rallying stock market pushes many investors back into shares even when the outlook is poor. Bear markets usually last longer than we have seen so far during the coronavirus.
The key to investment success is identifying the winners from the structural growth tailwinds, regardless of the macro-environment. Here are examples of likely winners and strugglers.
Too many investors focus on macro trends, when what really matters is catching a company in the right part of its S-curve, when its earnings and products are about to take off.
Policy proposals allow young people to access their super for a home bought from older people who put the money back into super. It helps some first buyers into a home earlier but it may push up prices.
In this environment, safe-haven assets like Government bonds act as a diversifier given the uncorrelated nature to equities during periods of risk-off, while offering a yield above term deposit rates.
A key attribute of great investors is the ability to abstract away the specifics of a particular domain, leaving only the important underlying principles upon which great investments can be made.
The Transfer Balance Cap limits the tax concessions available in super pension funds, removing the need for large, compulsory drawdowns. Plus there are no requirements to draw money out of an accumulation fund.
Companies tend to pre-position weak results ahead of 30 June, leading to earnings downgrades. The next two months will be critical for investors as a shift from ‘great expectations’ to ‘clear explanations’ gets underway.
We may have been extremely unlucky with the unforgiving weather plaguing the East Coast of Australia this year. However, on the economic front we are by many measures in a strong position relative to the rest of the world.
Discounts on LICs and LITs vary with market conditions, and many prominent managers have seen the value of their assets fall as well as discount widen. There may be opportunities for gains if discounts narrow.