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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 573 with weekend update

  • 15 August 2024
  • 6

Steve Eisman, best known for his ‘Big Short’ bet against US subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis, is now long and betting on what he thinks are the two biggest stories of our time: AI and infrastructure.

Why commodities deserve a place in portfolios

2024 looks set to be another year of reflation and geopolitical uncertainty — with the latter significantly raising the tail risk of a return to problematic inflation. That’s a supportive backdrop for commodities.

Challenges for the Magnificent Seven stocks

The Magnificent Seven stocks have driven indices to new highs, yet could face headwinds in the coming year. Challenges include their stretched valuations, inherent cyclicality, and high correlation to each other.

Backing strong companies over weak ones

It is important to be selective in this environment to ensure exposure to stronger over weaker companies. It is also an opportunistic time because an attractive entry price can help some of the weak to survive.

Opportunities but not a time to make major risk decisions

While this is no time to be making major calls on asset allocation, there are abundant opportunities for generating incremental returns. US government bonds, Japanese stocks, and commodities offer value for investors.

Why high-flying markets are ignoring economic challenges

Stock markets are climbing the proverbial 'wall of worry' despite a long laundry list of economic and geopolitical challenges. How do we make sense of this apparent disconnect and what is the outlook going forward?

Firstlinks Interview Series - bonus eBook

A collection of interviews with financial markets experts on investing, superannuation, retirement and other topical issues, as published by Firstlinks over 2021 and 2022.

Why private equity can continue to outperform

Private equity has had a stellar decade as low rates drove investors to search for higher returns in less liquid assets. Can inflows into the asset class continue? Can PE's outperformance versus public markets continue?

How diversified bond portfolios yield 7%

The rapid rise in US Treasury yields and widening spreads on almost all other types of credit have pushed down bond prices, but it now means diversified bond funds can give investors returns not seen for many years.

Electrification: Paving the road to emissions reduction

Over the past decade, we have seen sales of EVs go from a trickle to a steady stream of rapid adoption. We are now on the cusp of rapid expansion and have momentum to move the transport sector towards a path to decarbonization.

The inflation inflection: Adjusting to the new paradigm

The Covid-19 pandemic, and the range of policies aimed at mitigating its impact, has triggered a return to levels of inflation unseen for 40 years. Investors need to prepare for persistently higher inflation.

10 key investment themes for 2022

The end of the year is approaching fast, when investors consider rebalancing their portfolios. What are the big themes in a market facing the threat of inflation and rising rates for the first time in many years?

Five value chains driving the ‘transition winners’

The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.

10 big ideas for 2021 - a midyear update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Real yields, inflation and risk assets in a transition

We are undergoing a multi-year transition where high near-term economic growth drives rising real rates and higher but stable inflation. It bodes well for risky assets but with volatility and changing correlations.

Three key themes for global income investing post COVID

Heavy consumer spending, rising commodity prices and government deficits point to rising inflation. Given the risk in long-term fixed rate exposure, where else can bond exposure help generate income?

Investment learnings from the COVID-19 crisis

Many professional investors thought that environmental, social and governance trends would take a step back in the pandemic, but the opposite occurred. It highlighted factors with a material impact on financial results.

10 key themes for 2021

A summary of 10 investing themes for 2021 including early-cycle opportunities, populism, digital transformation and supply chains, plus the outlook for equities, fixed interest and alternatives.

Interview: How markets saved companies with zero revenues

Both equity and fixed interest markets now have far greater understanding of which companies will struggle during COVID. Supported by central banks, the markets have bailed out companies facing zero revenues.

Six types of big data are unlocking real insights

Data science is increasingly embedded into the research process of investment teams with the resources to exploit new technologies. The way the data is integrated and interpreted is crucial.

Why emerging markets are difficult for index funds

Many investors are looking to emerging markets due to stretched valuations in developed markets, but there are particular reasons why choosing a passive ETF in emerging markets may not be optimal.

How to find diversification and flexibility in bond markets

The role of a portfolio manager changes when normal opportunities become constrained. Flexibility and diversification in seeking alternatives in new markets is vital to adapting. 

Risk and reward in three high-income investments

As term deposits no longer satisfy the need for income, more investors are turning to alternative sources. Here's a check on where three types of fixed income sit in the company funding structure.

Adam Grotzinger on global bonds for diversified income

Continuing our Interview Series to learn how professional portfolios are managed, we go into the world of global corporate bonds for diversified income hedged into Australian dollars from liquid bond markets.

BBB worries seen from beyond the headlines

Bond markets are far larger than stockmarkets, and the BBB segments in the largest of all in the corporate market. Many analysts have pointed to potential weaknesses but it pays to look a bit deeper.

The case for global high yield bonds

Few Australians include global high yield bonds in their asset allocations, but with new ways to access the market locally, they are worth considering as a diversifying asset class.

Most viewed in recent weeks

The nuts and bolts of family trusts

There are well over 800,000 family trusts in Australia, controlling more than $3 trillion of assets. Here's a guide on whether a family trust may have a place in your individual investment strategy.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 581 with weekend update

A recent industry event made me realise that a 30 year old investing trend could still have serious legs. Could it eventually pose a threat to two of Australia's biggest companies?

  • 10 October 2024

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 583 with weekend update

Investing guru Howard Marks says he had two epiphanies while visiting Australia recently: the two major asset classes aren’t what you think they are, and one key decision matters above all else when building portfolios.

  • 24 October 2024

Warren Buffett is preparing for a bear market. Should you?

Berkshire Hathaway’s third quarter earnings update reveals Buffett is selling stocks and building record cash reserves. Here’s a look at his track record in calling market tops and whether you should follow his lead and dial down risk.

Preserving wealth through generations is hard

How have so many wealthy families through history managed to squander their fortunes? This looks at the lessons from these families and offers several solutions to making and keeping money over the long-term.

A big win for bank customers against scammers

A recent ruling from The Australian Financial Complaints Authority may herald a new era for financial scams. For the first time, a bank is being forced to reimburse a customer for the amount they were scammed.

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