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What poker can teach us about investing

So-called ‘resulting’ is what poker players call the tendency to judge a decision based on its outcome rather than its quality. It's something that happens a lot in investing, though should be avoided at all costs.

Confession season is upon us: What’s next for equity markets

Companies tend to pre-position weak results ahead of 30 June, leading to earnings downgrades. The next two months will be critical for investors as a shift from ‘great expectations’ to ‘clear explanations’ gets underway.

Why tech companies trade at a premium

When Australian companies are marked against their role in tech disruption, stock market returns are higher for companies with higher tech disruption scores. They also benefit when valued using low interest rates.

How we have invested during COVID-19

With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.

Why August company reporting season was poor

Profits results in August 2019 were overall poor, and other factors are in play that influence share prices. It is difficult to jump aboard a profit announcement and make money in the short term. 

It’s the large stocks driving fund misery

There’s a lot of talk of the WAAAX stocks causing fund underperformance, but they’re simply not big enough compared with choosing the wrong winners and losers among the large cap stocks.

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

WAAAX and an extraordinary disconnect

Frustratingly for investors in micro-caps, the larger companies which now include the WAAAX market darlings are running quickly ahead of their smaller cousins. It's a waiting game for the tide to turn.

Joe Magyer on pricing power, customer loyalty and the network effect

How does a small company fund manager identify customer loyalty, pricing power and network effects in a niche business trading at a high valuation, especially when so much value is in the future.

Get me out of Australia?

Although some domestic cyclical companies currently offer value, the attraction of offshore growth is a key factor for investors, including strong Australian companies with global aspirations.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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