Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 382

Yes siree, Hell hath no fury like privileged old white blokes who claim to have had their FEELINGS hurt by goddamn liberals! FWIW this somewhat-privileged old white bloke continues to have HIS feelings hurt BIGGLY by the preaching of the sanctimonious hypocrites who claim a mortgage on goodness for the god-deluded and a special place in their heaven for the lying narcissist who is trashing Brand America and all that decent folk [oooh, there they go again!] would think Firstlinks subscribers might hold sacred.

https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/passionate-election-sermon-by-trumps-spiritual-advisor-goes-viral-648234

https://metro.co.uk/2020/11/06/ranting-pastor-claims-god-is-furious-that-donald-trump-is-losing-presidential-election-13551641/

Indeed, biggusriggus, as you note, I did not say 'fearing rioting from Republicans', I said from the losing party. I doubt business owners are fearing rioting by the winning party. And I did not simply assert it but provided photographic evidence.

Thank you Graham. My quibble is the inference, intended or unintended, between the proclaimed loss of the election by Trump and the boarding up of businesses due to a perceived threat of rioting by supporters of the losing party.

Getting a bit of stick there Graham !

Hi Rod, indeed, and you should see the stuff we haven't published! Apparently, some people think I'm not allowed an opinion that differs from theirs.

That would be a strawman right there, Graham.

Merely asserting a statement to be true does not make it so. One must form an logical argument based on reason. If one's opinion does not stand up to criticism, it's hardly anyone else's fault. But if we argue honestly, everyone wins.

Take for example, this quote:

"From Washington to New York to San Francisco, businesses have boarded up their premises this week, fearing rioting by supporters of the losing party."

- It is true, as far as I am aware, that businesses have boarded up their premises.
- It is true, as far as I am aware, there is feared rioting.
- It is true, as far as I am aware, that there is historical rioting threat from democrat backed vandals (Source: https://www.9news.com.au/world/george-floyd-riots-80-per-cent-on-americans-think-country-is-out-of-control/d4688876-2318-43c9-9459-53c920dc7167)
- It is not true, as far as I am aware that there is historical rioting threat from republican backed vandals

Therefore, the statement "fearing rioting by supporters of the losing party" does not appear to be factually correct, if that losing party is republican. If you have reasonable evidence to support this claim, it should be considered on its merits. But by contrast, what we appear to be seeing is republicans exploring avenues of legal process for "challenging democracy" – whether you agree this is acceptable or not is another matter.

As information changes, any reasonable person should revise their views. A wise man once said, hold strong opinions but hold them lightly. As I stated, I think well-spirited discussion is important. But we should all aim to be honest.

Thanks again.

Perhaps it's time to stop people using pseudonyms and nicknames. I wonder if some of these folk would say the stuff they are about you and the article if we had to know their real names.

I am surprised, even disgusted, that you would take the Pelosi line that Trump is corrupt and "uses the Presidency for his own purposes". Hello Graham, evidence? But then you totally discount the possibility of fraud in the ballots, even though there is plenty of anecdotal evidence, yet to be investigated. The anomalies are mind boggling.
So, there you are, part of the anti-Trump hysteria of the MSM outlets here in the US.
For my money, a good reason after years of following you, to close the book on your biases and far-left opinions.

A flailing turtle on its back in the middle of summer was one of the better descriptions of Trumps leadership. Of a conservative nature myself you still have to call it what is was and he was indeed most interested in making everything about himself. Yes he has help light a fire under the status quo, which is a good thing, but we now need to look past this general paradigm shift in society. Life is too short to always be in conflict with each other and too shallow if self interest always prevails.

A great article Graham! In 1998 the world and the USA were a much simpler place. As a subscriber thank you for continuing to deliver free and informative investment news. In the past few months and I'm sure the next few, investment markets will continue to be heavily influenced by global political events and I hope that Firstlinks will continue to cover them despite the criticism from some in the commentary above. All the best.

Thanks, Adam, appreciate the support. I'm trying to point out that Donald Trump tapped into legitimate grievances on the inequality of wealth, and millions of Americans identified him as an 'outsider' like them because so many feel disenfranchised. There are enough of them to build his support base.

Biden will be a disaster for the US ,and for "us" , in that he won't last long in office before Harris takes the reins due of Biden's "lack of mental capacity" and then there will be a "full-blown socialist puppet" in office. The RINOS got it wrong and need to be weeded-out and replaced before the next election campaign. Donald , due to lack of support , was unable to "drain the swamp" and it cost him the job ! Washington DC voted 93% BIDEN !! and THAT is supposed to be Democracy at work ???? Regrettably , our administrative capital is little better ! A Leftist alliance [ Labor - Greens ] polled almost TWICE that of the Centrist Opposition Party.....hardly a reflection of the National political opinion ........but indicative of our own "swamp" formation and it's growing influence and control . Like WILLIAM , and NOT ENOUGH OTHERS , "In closing, I'll just say I've grown so tired of being lectured to by my self-appointed 'betters'...."

I thought this was an investment site. Can we jump out of the Trump v Biden v election result v US politics etc discussion please? Those wanting to continue can find many, many other platforms for doing so. I am much more interested in the impact of the result for investors, markets, better understanding of market drivers, macro implications etc than who shoulda, coulda, did or didn't.

John, in case you missed it, the first three articles are from leading asset managers on the investment implications of the Biden win. Not much more we can do as an investment site.

I believe Biden made a Freudian slip some time ago https://youtu.be/MA8a2g6tTp0
And it's not the first time he's told the public exactly who he is https://youtu.be/6uzRoU2KSl8
Compare this with a young Trump in 1980 https://youtu.be/nAgJAxkALyc

There's a lot of you out there that are disconnected from reality, I'm afraid. I wonder if you've spoken with anyone that doesn't already agree with you. This type of moralising would not last five seconds in a pub, from what increasingly appears to be a morally bankrupt class of society. Trump is far from perfect, but you at least know what you're getting – someone with a backbone. For a more balanced assessment, I would refer anyone to the commentary of Victor Davis Hanson.

Sorry about the strong rhetoric, but some of you folks really need to get a grip (love your work more generally, Graham). And by the way, the only threat of "rioting by supporters" relates to the potential of a democrat/globalist backed BLM movement as far as I am aware. A movement, I note, which has been supported by many Australian institutions, nonwithstanding its communist ideology which promotes the "disruption of the nuclear family". (removed from website Sept '20).

Brexit is mentioned and the conclusion is indeed correct – it shares the same sentiment as the Trump phenomenon. If one lives in a liberal-multicultural bubble that is London or any large city for that matter, Brexit would be a surprise. However, I would suggest that if one had a conversation with any common man it would not be a surprise at all – it is a pushback against moralising, ignorant, hubristic, technocrats – seeking greater control of individuals, families and communities more generally for "the greater good."

That said, appreciate all the work that you do. And thanks for the opportunity to discuss. The solution to this growing ideological gap is more rigrious and well-spirited argumentation, not less.

William you are on the money.

"No evidence of fraud" in the US election? It's debatable whether there's evidence of widespread fraud or outcome-altering fraud but there's plenty of evidence of election fraud. Whether it's dead people voting, people who have moved out of state still voting in their old state, election officials wearing "Biden 2020" facemasks whilst handling ballots (were the same officials also curing ballots unobserved by GOP observers?), 100k+ votes suddenly being found that are 100% Biden votes, GOP observers being denied access to watch counting then being kept 30 feet away from the ballots and then even when a judge ordered that they be allowed 6 feet from the ballots, they were still initially denied access contrary to the judge's orders.

OhReally BRUCE where did you get that stuff from?

We'll find out soon enough whether the allegations of voting fraud can be substantiated in court. This year December 8th is the "Safe Harbor" deadline to ensure that there is time for the Electors to meet on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December (this year, the 14th). I'm happy to wait until December 8th to decide whether the claims have merit or not.

I think we overcomplicate things. The US is clearly centre-right, more so than most other western countries. So when the Democrats keep shuffling to the left they lose more votes than they gain. Remember, no Green party of any consequence in the US so the 'far left' are much more part of the Dems. If you look at Australia and the UK recent elections, moves to the left are not vote winners. Plus the Dems are pretty inept at the best of times.
So with such a deeply unpopular President (I know, he has a solid fan base) how come the Dems, even if they win as looks likely, did so poorly (they didn't flip the Senate as they expected). Stopping lecturing the electorate might be a good start. People don't respond positively when talked down to.

It is not that long ago when the USA had the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Anyone could get a job blacks, hispanics and all comers. The choice given to the American people was two poor candidates so you had to choose the better of two evils.Sadly Biden is not strong enough to deal with China. At my 80 plus years it will not be an issue for me but I remain very concerned for my grandchildren with a weak Biden president

Only elite RINOs don't understand how Trump wins over low-income earners. This outcome was highly predictable.

RINOs? What does that mean.

Republicans In Name Only.

People support Trump because he angers the left so much. That's not because the left is wrong, in many cases they're correct. Its just that they shout down anyone who disagrees with them. Part of it is the media bias. While Sky News is clearly right wing bias, the ABC and others are consistent in their usually more subtle bias.
As a quick test, ask people and/or put on a SMH or Age chat about how many people have died from COVID due to Trump's rallies. Then pose the question whether the BLM protest in Melbourne was part of the virus spread. Common sense says both these large gatherings with people infected will be a problem, and all our Premiers and Chief Health Officers say avoid large gatherings. Deputy PM Michael McCormack raised this on Q & A, so you can just watch that to see what happens. Yes, the left is right about Trump rallies, its their response to suggestions about BLM here and in the US that turns people against them. The other factor is the working classes forgotten by the left. Qld in the last federal election was an example of the issue. In the Hunter region of NSW, what happens to the mining workers if a Labor Government looks to close coal mines to address climate change. Again, they are right on the policy, but will implement it in a way that antagonises the workers there. Here all they need to do is to talk about and deliver new jobs appropriate for the affected workers.

so trump has achieved nothing and Biden is an angel?

As I point out, there are legitimate concerns about inequality in the US, but how much did Trump focus on fixing it by reducing taxes for the wealthiest? Trump's priorities were looking after himself and the politics of any decision. Of course Biden is no angel and leaves a lot to be desired.

Graham, I keep hearing this talking point of Trump looking after himself through cronyism but I've never heard anyone actually point out in any detail what this cronyism is. Perhaps you could elaborate?

As for wealth inequality, the Fed Reserve released a report a few weeks back saying wealth inequality has shrunk in the last three years under Trump. Blacks have seen their wealth increase by 35%, Hispanics 65% and Whites 4%. You may have missed it as the MSM tends to not report these things.

In regards to the tax cuts:
The law retained the old structure of seven individual income tax brackets, but in most cases, it lowered the rates. The top rate fell from 39.6% to 37%, while the 33% bracket dropped to 32%, the 28% bracket to 24%, the 25% bracket to 22%, and the 15% bracket to 12%.? The lowest bracket remained at 10%, and the 35% bracket was also unchanged. The income bands that the new rates applied to are lower, compared to 2018 brackets under current law, for the five highest brackets. - From Investopedia

Why is it that so many wealthy people in the finance industry hate Trump, while he is a hero to the Blue Collar workers in the States? Perhaps we can discuss that one later.

In closing, I'll just say I've grown so tired of being lectured to by my self-appointed 'betters'....