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Ashley Owen

Why are recessions usually good for share prices?

It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.

Lessons from a century of virus plagues

As sharp market falls in Australia and globally mark an end to coronavirus complacency, it's worth reflecting on the economic effects of other major pandemics of the 20th century and beyond.

Where do sustainable returns come from?

The 20% share price gains over the past 12 months have not been supported by similar improvements in company earnings. The market is willing to pay far more for each $1 of profit or dividends.

Where do Australian share returns come from?

The returns from Australian shares come from four main components. Any forecast needs to consider these different parts, as Australian shares were recent laggards in diversified portfolios.

A decade of Aussie shares: who delivered, who dithered?

Following the uncertainty of the GFC, 2010 to 2019 delivered decent Australian share results overall, with wide variations by sector. It's fascinating to see who won and lost over the decade.

Markets relying on central bank sugar hits

Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever. 

Latest Updates

Property

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

Investment strategies

Is defensive the new offensive?

Relatively boring, unglamorous, defensive stocks like Kroger and Allstate have quietly outperformed gilded tech giants, offering steady growth, visibility, and resilient returns in a market captivated by AI and flashier industries.

Shares

How the RBA scores on its inflation goal

The Reserve Bank continues to face criticism from all sides. A reminder of the RBA's mandate and a review of their track record in maintaining price stability since the early 1990s.

Investment strategies

Levered credit: A late cycle ingredient for drawdown pain

As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.

Planning

The more things change… longevity just goes on increasing

Australia needs a major shift in longevity awareness, attitudes and behaviour if, as a community, we are to reap the benefits of increasing longevity. Adopting a national strategy is well overdue.

Property

The improving outlook of Australian commercial real estate

The sector is positioned to benefit from defensive and resilient income streams supported by embedded rental increase opportunities. 

Property

Seize hidden opportunities among 50+ home buyer schemes in Australia

There is a laundry list of government schemes to help Australian's struggling with housing affordability. Savvy buyers should take advantage to break into the property market.

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