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19 March 2026
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Compared with most years in the last decade, FY20 performed poorly due to the virus, and now dividends are falling. There are three things to watch this year as support policies are wound back.
It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.
As sharp market falls in Australia and globally mark an end to coronavirus complacency, it's worth reflecting on the economic effects of other major pandemics of the 20th century and beyond.
The 20% share price gains over the past 12 months have not been supported by similar improvements in company earnings. The market is willing to pay far more for each $1 of profit or dividends.
The returns from Australian shares come from four main components. Any forecast needs to consider these different parts, as Australian shares were recent laggards in diversified portfolios.
Following the uncertainty of the GFC, 2010 to 2019 delivered decent Australian share results overall, with wide variations by sector. It's fascinating to see who won and lost over the decade.
With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.
The impact of the Iran War is far more than expensive petrol. Higher oil prices have secondary inflationary impacts that reverberate throughout the economy which could be bad news for Australians with mortgages.
Global Listed Infrastructure dividends are forecast to grow 5-6% p.a over the next two years. After a hiatus, share buybacks are back on the agenda and will play an integral role in shareholder returns.
Past oil shocks offer lessons for investors dealing with the fallout from the Iran War and the ongoing impact on inflation.
Former Australian Prime Minister, Paul Keating, once said "When you change the government, you change the country." We're about to see whether that holds true in Japan.
Central banks now hold more gold reserves than US Treasuries, signalling a shift in safe-haven asset strategy and portfolio diversification as geopolitical risks increase.
Historically economic progress is measured by GDP growth but there is an increasing body of work that explores quantitative measures of wellbeing.