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3 January 2026
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The returns from Australian shares come from four main components. Any forecast needs to consider these different parts, as Australian shares were recent laggards in diversified portfolios.
Following the uncertainty of the GFC, 2010 to 2019 delivered decent Australian share results overall, with wide variations by sector. It's fascinating to see who won and lost over the decade.
Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever.
Profits results in August 2019 were overall poor, and other factors are in play that influence share prices. It is difficult to jump aboard a profit announcement and make money in the short term.
Think you can pick winners? A minority of listed Australian companies make a profit and most are speculative stocks that will eventually disappear, taking the dreams and money of investors with them.
If an investor had been living on the moon or under a rock for a year and returned on 30 June 2019, on seeing their portfolio, they would have thought it was a delightful year full of good news.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.