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14 August 2022
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It's been a golden period for investing for those willing to take some risk. Australia has experienced six straight years when everything went up, and this has never happened before in history.
When it comes to company floats or IPOs, sellers know much more about the business than buyers, so before getting caught up in the euphoria of a new listing, consider what it is they know that you don’t.
The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy's GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.
We are not in the heady market conditions of 1987 at the moment, but the biggest problem facing investors will be the urge to panic sell after a major fall, similar to the desire that drives buying at the top.
Continuing our look at 'safe havens', gold and bank deposits are often considered alternatives to 'risky' shares. How have they performed in times of stress, and do they rate as long-term investments at other times?
The short-term volatility of share prices, and the rapid falls which hit markets every 15 years or so, disguise the wealth creation effects of share investments over a long-term horizon.
Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.
In 2002, the share price of the company that became Sydney Airport (SYD) hit 80 cents from the $2 IPO price. After 20 years of astute investment driving revenue increases, it sold to private hands for $8.75 in 2022.
There are significant differences in the sector weightings of an ethical fund versus an index, and while this has caused some short-term headwinds recently, the tailwinds are expected to blow over the long term.
Many new investors make common mistakes while learning about markets. Losses are inevitable. Newbies should read more and develop a long-term focus while avoiding big mistakes and not aiming to be brilliant.
Lenders use Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities to finance mortgages and RMBS are available to retail investors through fund structures. They come with many layers of protection beyond movements in house prices.