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3 January 2026
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Australian bond rates are now lower than during recessions and depressions of the past, but it's not driven by local fundamentals. The world of interest rates is in a place it's never been before in history.
Total returns from the local stock market have averaged 10.5% per year since Federation, with 12% p.a. under right-leaning governments and 8% p.a. under left-leaning governments. But it's mainly luck.
The Budget surplus in the 2018-19 year is mainly due to fortuitous tax revenue gains from the mining boom. In the past five years, government spending has risen by an incredible 21%.
While hot stocks generate media coverage and attention from investors, for the overall health of the market, they are irrelevant. A few big companies drive the Australian market.
There are enough negative factors in play to suggest great caution with asset allocation in portfolios, as a wonderful run of results for investors came to an end in 2018. Here are four common factors in market collapses.
The history of the Big Four banks is littered with bad strategies by overpaid executives, taxpayer-funded rescues and a lack of competition. As the banks clean up the Royal Commission mess, Macquarie has overall done better.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.