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18 September 2025
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The Australian market again delivered strong returns in 2017-2018 with big sector differences, but there were large variations in global performance depending on the currency hedging strategy.
Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.
After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.
The Australian share market offers a dividend yield of about 4.2% at the moment, supported by franking credit of 1.5% to give an attractive 5.7%. The focus is on the refund of this credit.
In the last seven years, commodity prices and the fortunes of many Australian producers went through a boom/bust cycle and are now on a recovery rebound. It's a volatile ride but a sector worth another look.
What is it about shares that most investors want to buy as they become more expensive, then sell when the price falls? We don't do that with other goods. There are four main choices when reacting to a market fall.
Super and housing dwarf every other asset class in Australia, and they’ve both become too big to fail. Can they continue to grow at current rates, and if so, what are the implications for the economy, work and markets?
With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.
Retiring with debt may have advantages. Maintaining a mortgage on the family home can provide a line of credit in retirement for flexibility, extra income, and a DIY reverse mortgage strategy.
The ASX is shrinking not by accident, but by design. A governance model that rewards detachment over ownership is driving capital into private hands and weakening public markets.
The AI boom has sparked investor euphoria, but under the surface, US big tech is showing cracks - slowing growth, surging capex, and fading dominance signal it's time to question conventional tech optimism.
Trade is now a strategic weapon, reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, resilient companies - those capable of absorbing shocks and defending margins - are best positioned to outperform.
The next generation of wealth creation is likely to emerge from founder influenced firms that combine scalable models with long-term alignment. Four signs can alert investors to these companies before the crowds.