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Market Cycles

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From macro to micro: end-of-cycle investing

For a decade of accommodative central bank monetary policy, investors have been more macro-oriented, following liquidity and rate patterns. It’s time to focus on companies and be more micro-oriented.

Review: Howard Marks on the market cycle

Howard Marks distills a lifetime of investing into his new book, and perhaps as a sign that he has really mastered the market cycle, he has just sold a majority stake in Oaktree to Brookfield.

Know what you own in complex markets

In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.

Reflections on four decades of investing

As he prepares for retirement, a Chief Investment Strategist from a major global fund manager summarises what he has learned working through five full business cycles. He says it's time to take risk off the table.

Why active management needs a full cycle

The long bull market allowed passive investing to prosper, but over a whole cycle, companies with better fundamentals will outperform weak ones. The market is finally showing some dispersion.

End-of-cycle and riding an ageing bull

Everyone’s calling for the end of the long bull-run in equities. But we don’t know if the end is a few months or a few years away, and technological change is so vast that historical lessons need to be tempered.

The voting machine and the weighing machine

Long-term earnings matter the most to stock prices over the long run. Trying to time short-term fluctuations is folly, but we can pick the times when movements are disharmonious with earnings.

We buy more apples when they are cheaper, why not Apple?

What is it about shares that most investors want to buy as they become more expensive, then sell when the price falls? We don't do that with other goods. There are four main choices when reacting to a market fall.

Spicing up two main investment principles

Telling investment stories in the form of a fable or parable is a great way to overcome the reluctance of many inexperienced investors to think about saving.

GFC lessons 10 years on: can it happen again?

Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.

Australian shares: what happened to the miracle economy?

Australia has enjoyed a remarkable 25 year run without a ’recession’, but our stockmarket has badly lagged the US in recent years, and company earnings are still some 30% below the level of 10 years ago. Will it improve soon?

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Retirees facing steep increases for basic items

ASFA has updated its tables on how much money is needed for a 'comfortable' or 'modest' lifestyle in retirement, but there are some prices rising well ahead of inflation.

Adele Ferguson on ‘Banking Bad’ and weaving magic

The journalist most responsible for the calling of the Royal Commission takes care not to be roped in by everyone with a complaint to push. It takes experienced judgement to gather the right information.

Let’s stop calling them ‘bond proxies’

With cash and term deposit rates at all-time lows, and fixed interest bonds not much better, investors are looking for ‘bond proxies’ to deliver more income. But is ‘proxy’ a misnomer, and what are they anyway?

Six warning bells against property spruikers

Property spruikers use common techniques, and con men will increasingly target older people who feel they do not have enough financial independence for their retirement years.

Should retirees spend more and worry less?

When more than half of retired Australians restrict their spending to less than the age pension and fear running out of money more than death itself, they may be denying a better lifestyle for themselves.

Helping your children build their super

It has become more difficult to build large superannuation balances with contribution caps and more people paying off home loans for longer. How can wealthy parents help their adult children?

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