Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 298

Briefly, on the role of government bonds

The recent article by Paul Chin advocated a role for government bonds in a diversified portfolio at all times.

I’m more in the ‘against’ camp than the ‘for’ camp. I disagree that government bonds should always play a role in a diversified portfolio. It’s too long a bow to draw for one of the lowest-yielding asset classes. In another article on government bonds, Jonathan Rochford makes a good point that the cost of gaining this diversification is too great if it has to be obtained by owning an asset class that delivers a low return over time.

The role of government bonds in some portfolios

I advocate holding government bonds if there’s a particular requirement for the security and liquidity and a specific investment need. For example:

  • Insurance companies need funds maturing at various dates in the future, with absolute certainty about the value of the asset that matures
  • Banks need high quality liquid assets to meet unexpected levels of withdrawals and as part of managing their capital adequacy
  • Central banks hold foreign exchange reserves on behalf of their government
  • Super funds that have a reasonable allocation to illiquid assets could hold government bonds to help them to meet redemptions quickly and easily

The sweeping arguments about government bonds don’t specify properly what segment of the market is being analysed. For example, the return quoted in Paul's article of 5.1% contrasted with the experience of some investors who achieved only 2% from the asset class in 2018.

It’s easy to guess how the return difference came about. These are the possibilities:

  • The return quoted in the article was from an ‘all maturities’ index. Investors in a fund that focuses on shorter term, lower duration bonds received a smaller return. For example, a fund limited to securities with maturity not longer than 10 years returned around 1% less than the 'all maturities' market. Shorter maturities were returned lesser. Further, deduct an active management fee and you could easily be as low as 2% for your return last year.

  • Another possibility is that some investors were in an actively-managed 'all maturities' fund in which the manager expected yields to rise during 2018 and so had positioned the fund in shorter term bonds. Such a strategy would miss a chunk of the capital gains on offer.

Owning ‘government bonds’ doesn’t, in itself, deliver the degree of diversification benefits claimed in Paul's essay. The portfolio needed a reasonable holding of longer-term bonds that enjoyed some capital gains. Short-term government bonds really only give downside protection. Of course, in a year in which domestic shares delivered a negative return, even +2% provided some ‘diversification’. But a corporate bond portfolio also did that with better returns over the medium to long term.

A couple of other comments on Paul’s article

Paul’s chart showed returns from global government bonds in 2018 of +13.7%. One comment correctly pointed out that this would have been from unhedged global bonds, therefore most of the return came from currency gains rather than from bonds as such. Currency is also a diversifier and may well be the better diversifier for Australian investors to rely on, than our own government bonds.

Another comment said Paul's argument only works when inflation is falling, claiming that this is why bond returns have been strong for 'the past 30 years'. I'll simply point out here that falling inflation led to lower bond yields which have reduced bond returns, not bolstered them. Lower yields deliver capital gains only in the short term, but ultimately bonds are all about income. The last 30-year period started with high yields and high returns, but that was because of high inflation in the 1970s, not because of falling inflation in the 1990s and since.

In any case, you don’t need to create stories about the macroenvironment to predict that Australian government bond returns will be low over the next several years at least. We know it from their yields. The 5- to 10-year Commonwealth bonds are now paying investors only around 2%. So, over the next 5-10 years, that will be their average annual return. If yields do rise, then those returns will gradually increase as well.

 

Warren Bird is Executive Director of Uniting Financial Services, a division of the Uniting Church (NSW & ACT). He has 30 years’ experience in fixed income investing. He also serves as an Independent Member of the GESB Investment Committee. These are Warren’s personal views and don’t necessarily reflect those of any organisation for which he works.

RELATED ARTICLES

One last hurrah for the 60/40 portfolio?

Why we believe bonds are now beautiful

Inflation? Nothing (much) to see here

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

9 winning investment strategies

There are many ways to invest in stocks, but some strategies are more effective than others. Here are nine tried and tested investment approaches - choosing one of these can improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.

Planning

Super, death and taxes – time to rethink your estate plans?

The $3 million super tax has many rethinking their super strategies, especially issues of wealth transfer on death. This reviews the taxes on super benefits and offers investment alternatives.

Taxation

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

Shares

The megatrend you simply cannot ignore

Markets are reassessing the impact of AI, with initial euphoria giving way to growing scepticism. This shift is evident in the performance of ASX-listed AI beneficiaries, creating potential opportunities.

Gold

Is this the real reason for gold's surge past $3,000?

Concerns over the US fiscal position seem to have overtaken geopolitics and interest rates as the biggest tailwind for gold prices. Even if a debt crisis doesn't seem likely, there could be more support on the way.

Exchange traded products

Is now the time to invest in small caps?

With further RBA rate cuts forecast this year, small caps may be key beneficiaries. There are quality small cap LICs and LITs trading at discounts to net assets, offering opportunities for astute investors.

Strategy

Welcome to the grey war

Forget speculation about a future US-China conflict - it's already happening. Through cyberwarfare and propaganda, China is waging a grey war designed to weaken democracies without firing a single shot.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.