Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 369

Why 2020 has been the year of the bond market

The year 2020 will be marked in history by a pandemic that had devastating effects on global health and economic activity. In financial markets, the pandemic set forth a rollercoaster of volatility that spotlighted the fundamental role of bonds in investment portfolios.

Making the case for bonds just 12 months ago would have been a difficult task. In June 2019, the share market was experiencing its eleventh straight year of growth following the GFC, and the ASX200 was a mere 500 points from its all-time record of 7,145. Equities were on an unbelievable bull run, and what would make anyone believe that it would not continue? Investor portfolios had not been tested in any serious fashion for more than a decade.

Lulled into a false sense of security

When markets feel at their best is perhaps when it is most paramount for investors to keep a perspective on their long-term goals. Whether those goals be for life in retirement, to ensure a well-being for others, or for philanthropy, an investment portfolio often entails a multi-decade horizon. It needs the ability to withstand the machinations of markets over various periods.

Going back to June 2019, many an investor considering a rebalance of their portfolio would have questioned the logic of diversifying away from outperforming growth assets—equities—and reallocating to bonds. High-quality bonds are boring—they are often synonymous with stability and income. It would have felt like leaving money on the table.

The vanilla nature of high-quality, investment-grade bonds, would have lulled many an investor into overlooking one of their most alluring qualities. Bonds are a diversifier in an investor’s portfolio, serving as ballast to equities in a market downturn. While there is a spectrum of bond offerings in the market, we are focusing this conversation on investment-grade bonds and the role they play in a diversified portfolio.

The market volatility during the first half of 2020 starkly displayed the differing characteristics between equities and other growth assets and bonds. This period provides valuable insights into how bonds can reduce all-in losses versus an all equity asset mix.

The chart below compares the daily return of a global bond and global equity portfolio between January and June 2020, scaled to 100 at the start of the year. The first thing that jumps out is the deep ‘V’ of equities in March relative to the muted dip in bonds. Both asset classes experienced a period of negative returns, but of significantly different magnitudes.

Equities have yet to fully recover. Equity optimists may point to the recovery of equities over a longer horizon, however, this article is not an argument against the long-term benefits of equity exposure, but rather how the two asset classes complement each other in a portfolio.

The wild, daily swings in March and April were enough to unnerve any investor, and the trap for investors was selling equities when things felt their worst—participating in the downswing, locking in losses, and missing the opportunity to partake in the recovery. Exposure to investment-grade bonds during this period served as a cushion, dampening overall portfolio volatility and potential losses, leaving an investor better placed to ride out the volatility and experience the equity rebound.

The diversifying impact of bonds

The table below compares global and local equity and investment-grade bond returns over the first half of the year. This period was exceptionally volatile, but it does a nice job at illustrating the diversifying effect of bonds. Over longer, less volatile periods, while the balancing benefit of bonds is more subtle, they still produce value for a long-term investor, especially if short-term market conditions trigger the need for realisation of losses in an overweight equity position.

While the prima facie return from bonds is modest across different phases of the first half of 2020, the differential with equities is large, as seen with the far-right columns. The comparative outperformance of bonds is in double digits for the half year, the first quarter and the month of March.

So here we are, in the second half of 2020, post one of the shortest and sharpest bear markets in history. Many investors who were overweight in higher risk asset classes would have coveted the downside protection that high-quality bonds would have provided. Even though equities have partially rebounded, most markets are sitting on losses year-to-date. Those with little diversification away from equities are probably feeling better now than in March, although the sting may not have fully worn off.

Check the role of different types of bonds

Recent history has shown there is no better time to appreciate and utilise the benefits of investment-grade bonds in your portfolio. There are different types of bonds available for investment, and each type and class play a role in a diversified portfolio depending on your investment goals, risk aversion, and time horizon.

High yield, lower quality bonds might fit in one person’s portfolio but not another’s. High-yield bonds do not provide the same degree of diversification from equity behaviour as investment-grade bonds. For this reason, investors must ensure they understand what their portfolio’s bond allocation is exposed to.

For those uncomfortable making the asset allocation between growth assets and bonds, there are diversified fund options to ensure you can still include a bond component in your portfolio, whether index investing, active investing or a mix of both.

As always, this should entail a consideration of your long-term goals, risk appetite and the fees you will be paying. That way, the lessons of 2020 will ensure bonds will be an important part of helping you achieve your investment goals, whatever they may be.

 

Geoff Parrish is Head of Vanguard's Asia-Pacific Fixed Income Group. Vanguard Australia is a sponsor of Firstlinks. This article is for general information only and does not consider the circumstances of any individual.

For more articles and papers from Vanguard Investments Australia, please click here.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

Is gold a growth or defensive asset?

ETFs playing bigger role for investors

Why gold may keep rising - and what could stop it

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.

Supercharging the ‘4% rule’ to ensure a richer retirement

The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are franking credits worth pursuing?

Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Latest Updates

A nation of landlords and fund managers

Super and housing dwarf every other asset class in Australia, and they’ve both become too big to fail. Can they continue to grow at current rates, and if so, what are the implications for the economy, work and markets?

Economy

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

Retirement

Retiring debt-free may not be the best strategy

Retiring with debt may have advantages. Maintaining a mortgage on the family home can provide a line of credit in retirement for flexibility, extra income, and a DIY reverse mortgage strategy.

Shares

Why the ASX is losing Its best companies

The ASX is shrinking not by accident, but by design. A governance model that rewards detachment over ownership is driving capital into private hands and weakening public markets.

Investment strategies

3 reasons the party in big tech stocks may be over

The AI boom has sparked investor euphoria, but under the surface, US big tech is showing cracks - slowing growth, surging capex, and fading dominance signal it's time to question conventional tech optimism.

Investment strategies

Resilience is the new alpha

Trade is now a strategic weapon, reshaping the investment landscape. In this environment, resilient companies - those capable of absorbing shocks and defending margins - are best positioned to outperform.

Shares

The DNA of long-term compounding machines

The next generation of wealth creation is likely to emerge from founder influenced firms that combine scalable models with long-term alignment. Four signs can alert investors to these companies before the crowds.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.