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Sunday, 23 January 2022
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In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.
In a recent speech, US Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen signalled that 'unconventional' monetary policy actions by central banks are likely to be 'normal' for many years.
Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.
The RBA follows a fairly standard formula when drafting its interest rate announcements each month and a keen observer might detect a change in view before an actual change in interest rates.
The US Fed has finally lifted interest rates as anticipated, but from here it's especially difficult to predict future rate changes given that current economic conditions would normally dictate lowering rates.
The lending patterns of households and businesses, when compared against GDP and disposable income, can provide useful insights into where the economy is headed.
Most people entering retirement do not see a financial adviser, mainly due to cost. It's a major problem because there are small mistakes a retiree can make which are expensive and avoidable if a few tips were known.
Eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card has no asset test and a relatively high income test. It's worth checking eligibility and the benefits of qualifying to save on the cost of medications.
The focus is on Magellan for its investment performance and departure of the CEO, but Douglass says the pandemic, inflation, rising rates and Middle East tensions have not played out. Vindication is always long term.
This is our annual checklist of what retirees need to be aware of in 2022. It is a long list of 25 items and not everything will apply to your situation. Run your eye over the benefits and entitlements.
The Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger partnership is the stuff of legends, but even Charlie admits it is coming to an end ("I'm nearly dead"). He is one of the few people in investing prepared to say what he thinks.
Depending on personal circumstances, it may be time to rethink the bias to paying down housing debt over wealth accumulation in super. Do the sums and ask these four questions to plan for your future.