The Weekend Edition includes a market update plus Morningstar adds links to two additional articles.
Happy New Year to everyone. I trust you got through the festivities in one piece, albeit perhaps a kilo or two heavier.
Last year, Firstlinks published more than 400 articles, including editorials. We’re lucky enough to have great sponsors that produce quality pieces for us on a regular basis. And we also source third party articles, including from writers who’ve become regular fixtures like Noel Whittaker, Harry Chemay, Ashley Owen, Kaye Fallick, Roger Montgomery, Tony Dillon, and Jon Kalkman. A big thank you to everyone who contributes to our newsletter.
Today, I’ve handpicked 20 of my favourite articles from last year. The topics range from generational equities and inequities to the $3 million super tax, retirement, LICs, franking credits, home batteries, as well as US exceptionalism and the AI boom.
I don’t agree with all the articles, though I think one of the strengths of Firstlinks is publishing different points of view. What the articles have in common is that they’re informative, thought provoking, and most have generated significant discussion among readers.
I hope you enjoy the list and do tell me which one was your favourite in 2025 (whether on the list or not). Each heading includes a link to the relevant article.
Which generation had it toughest?
Mark McCrindle | 6 August 2025
Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate.
Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly
Harris Kupperman| 27 August 2025
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
What history reveals about market corrections and crashes
Andrew Mitchell and Steven Ng | 19 March 2025
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.
Supercharging the ‘4% rule’ to ensure a richer retirement
James Gruber| 27 August 2025
The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.
The case for the $3 million super tax
Harry Chemay | 28 May 2025
The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flak though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.
A steady road to get rich
Tony Kaye | 25 June 2025
The latest lists of Australia’s wealthiest individuals show that while overall wealth has continued to rise, gains by individuals haven't been uniform. Many might have been better off adopting a simpler investment strategy.
Are franking credits worth pursuing?
Geoff Warren | 13 August 2025
Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.
Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy
James Gruber | 12 March 2025
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
Preparing for aged care
Brooke Logan | 1 October 2025
Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.
Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme
Noel Whittaker | 23 April 2025
Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.
Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax
Meg Heffron | 4 June 2025
The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.
Are LICs licked?
James Gruber | 10 September 2025
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
The super tax and the defined benefits scandal
John Abernethy | 28 May 2025
Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.
Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor
Romano Sala Tenna | 15 October 2025
In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.
Chinese steel - building a Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes
Ashley Owen | 30 July 2025
China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?
Is this the real reason for gold's surge past $3,000?
Jeremy Pessemier | 9 July 2025
Concerns over the US fiscal position seem to have overtaken geopolitics and interest rates as the biggest tailwind for gold prices. Even if a debt crisis doesn't seem likely, there could be more support on the way.
2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications
Julie Steed | 5 March 2025
The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.
The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism
Duncan Lamont | 15 January 2025
The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.
The challenges with building a dividend portfolio
James Gruber | 22 January 2025
Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.
James Gruber
Also in this week's edition...
At this time last year, Roger Montgomery said to Firstlinks readers that they should ignore the naysayers because positive economic growth and disinflation would likely drive markets higher in 2025. Turns out, he was spot on. What's his advice for 2026? It's more nuanced this time around.
Romano Sala Tenna is becoming our resident market historian. In his latest article, he goes back in time to analyse how Australian equities have performed versus those in the US, and discovers that there have been ebbs and flows in comparative performance. Contrary to consensus opinion, he suggests that the time may be ripe for ASX stocks to again take the lead.
Don Stammer's X-Factor series has become an institution in financial circles and we're glad that Don has chosen to write what may be the last in the series for Firstlinks. What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? Here, Don announces his winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? Anthony Deden argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Holiday breaks are made for dipping into a good book. UniSuper has helpfully put together a list of possible summer reads on topics ranging from leadership, investing, and well-being.
Two extra articles from Morningstar this weekend. Margaret Giles looks at the best US companies to invest in now, while Bella Albrecht examines the best and worst performing US stocks last year.
Lastly, in this week's whitepaper, the World Gold Council provides its outlook for the yellow metal in 2026.
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Weekend market update
US equities ended the first session of 2026 modestly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, the Dow +0.7%, while the Nasdaq finished essentially flat. Equities were held back in part by a further decline in US Treasuries with the yield on the US 10-year note rising 2 basis points to 4.19%, nearing its highest since September. Tesla fell 2.6%, though it pared an initial deeper drop, after confirming a second consecutive annual sales decline, and the ceding of its crown as the world’s electric vehicle leader to China’s BYD.
From AAP:
The Australian share market posted modest gains in its first trading session of 2026, with uranium developers and biotechs advancing and goldminers lagging. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished Friday up 0.15% to 8,727.8, while the broader All Ordinaries rose 0.2% to 9,036.6. The small gains did snap a four-day losing streak, with the ASX200 finishing the holiday-shortened week down 0.4%.
Five of the ASX's 11 sectors finished higher on Friday, two closed lower and four were flat.
None moved all that much, energy being the most active with a 0.7% gain, buoyed by uranium miners after US-based Duke Energy filed an initial application to build a fleet of small nuclear reactors in North Carolina that could be in service by 2036. Boss Energy advanced 6.8% while Deep Yellow, Paladin Energy and Lotus Resources each climbed more than 5%. NexGen Energy rose 2.1% and Bannerman Energy added 3.3%.
Elsewhere in the sector, Woodside Energy edged 0.3% higher to $23.66, while Santos dipped 0.3% to $6.15.
In health care, Mesoblast rose 1.8%, Telix Pharmaceuticals climbed 1.4%, Racura Oncology lifted 5.1%, Clarity Pharma grew 9.8% and Orthocell advanced 3.2%.
In the mining sector, Northern Star tumbled 8.6% to a nearly two-month low of $24.43 after the ASX's biggest goldminer downgraded its production guidance. Northern Star said its operations late in the December quarter had been hit by a number of "isolated negative events" including a primary crusher failure at its Kalgoorlie processing centre that impacted production for four weeks.
Elsewhere in the sector, BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue all climbed 0.6% to $45.76, $147.69 and $22.14, respectively.
Nickel Industries rose 7.8% to 90 cents after the Sydney-headquartered nickel miner said SpaceX supplier Sphere had taken a 10% stake in its Huayue nickel cobalt project in Indonesia.
Droneshield, the biggest gainer in the ASX200 last year, picked up where it left off, with DRO shares rising 8.1% to $3.33.
Another drone company, Elsight, rose 11% to an all-time high of $3.42 after announcing it had begun delivering its Aura drone communications platform to a leading defence contractor.
All of the big four banks finished in the green, with Westpac adding 0.9% to $38.95, CBA rising 0.3% to $161.12, and NAB and ANZ both growing 0.2% to $42.40 and $36.42, respectively.
Curated by James Gruber and Leisa Bell
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