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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Have AI’s four horsemen arrived?

AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.

War can’t be good, can it?

War brings immense human suffering and geopolitical chaos, but historically, equity markets have shown a certain detachment and resilience amid conflict, leading to increased profitability despite initial panic.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Should Australia follow Trump's new brand of capitalism?

A new brand of capitalism may be emerging - one where governments take equity in private companies. Is it state overreach, or a smarter way to fund public goods without raising taxes?

Boom, bubble or alarm?

After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.

Is it time to pull the plug on EVs?

Electric vehicles have long been championed as the future of transportation. With production slowdowns, cautious consumers, and infrastructure challenges, EVs appear to be hitting a speed bump.

Latest Updates

Economy

Why have Australian living standards 'fallen' and how do we fix it?

For the last few years there has been much talk of a 'cost-of-living' crisis in Australia and of 'falling living standards'. Lately this has flared up again with the pickup in inflation resulting in a renewed fall in real wages.

Latest from Morningstar

Four options for an income investor’s next dollar

What if Australia’s golden age of dividends is ending? Rather than overhaul your portfolio, it may be worth considering where new capital can work harder. I discuss four income strategies and the trade-offs behind each.

Taxation

Completing the reform of CGT: tax real losses like real gains

Recent CGT reforms tax real gains by indexing capital gains to inflation. However, the reform fails to index losses, leading to higher tax on assets that do not keep pace with inflation, creating inefficiencies in the tax system.

Investment strategies

Blockbuster AI debt issuance coming to a bond market near you

With Australia likely to attract a growing share of AI-related issuance, investors should prepare for increasing influence from AI funding demands, evolving credit fundamentals and changing valuation dynamics.

Investment strategies

Active managers: Bringing a gun to the gunfight

When data arrived, basketball abandoned the mid-range shot, Formula 1 reinvented the pit stop and chess embraced humans working with machines. Active managers confronting today's markets may learn from the same path.

Retirement

What Australian super funds can learn from the UK

Most people want answers to three retirement questions: What have I got? Is it enough? What can I do with it? A leading UK pension innovator shares his lessons on helping members better understand and prepare for retirement.

Investment strategies

What the market may be missing in FY27

We asked ten fund managers the same question following FY26. While their investment styles differ dramatically, their answers revealed several surprising areas of agreement about where markets may be heading next.

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