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20 April 2024
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Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?
Investors are overexposed to recent winners, namely large cap, growth stocks. As a whole, these stocks are exceptionally expensive, which means investors may need to switch strategies to outperform going forward.
After a hiatus last year, growth stocks are back in vogue as investors search for the 'next big thing'. That makes today's market environment unusually rich in attractive, high dividend-yielding companies.
Given the last decade delivered phenomenal stockmarket returns, investors should expect the next decade to prove more challenging. However, 'value' stocks are cheap, providing compelling opportunities for contrarian investors.
Every fund is measured against a benchmark, but active managers earn their fees by taking strong views contrary to an index. It requires fortitude in the short term as interviews with Orbis and Allan Gray show.
Last year was rough for investors, especially where equity and bond portfolios were not as diversified as they thought. Spreading the risk sounds simple but watch that funds are not all doing the same thing.
Contrarian investing is not about doing the opposite to everyone else no matter what, it’s having courage in your convictions in a disciplined investment process. Here are examples of contrarian investing in practice.
We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years. History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.
A collection of interviews with financial markets experts on investing, superannuation, retirement and other topical issues, as published by Firstlinks over 2021 and 2022.
Investors face a difficult decision when choosing their fund managers. Here's a guide for how they can find active managers with sustainable long-term advantages who can help make a difference to their portfolios.
All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.
Investment in the energy sector has dropped significantly but demand continues to rise. Higher prices normally trigger more spending and increased supply. If this is not the case, it creates investment opportunities.
A $28 billion global manager still sees far more potential in value than growth stocks, believes energy stocks are undervalued including an Australian company, and describes the need for resilience in investing.
Most analysts are blaming inflation, rising rates and the threat of war for the current market weakness, but many companies were vulnerable well before these concerns as a result of stretched valuations.
There have been few times in the past 140 years when investors were willing to pay for more than 30 years’ worth of earnings, yet here we are around 40. This starting point does not augur well for future returns.
All eyes are on Japan and the opportunity to win for competing athletes. After disappointing investors for many years, Japan is also in focus for its value, diversification and the safe haven status of its currency.
Cryptocurrencies have created the perfect recipe to encourage speculation with the most important ingredient for a bubble to form being something new and shiny to attract investor attention. What's it really worth?
Rules of thumb often oversimplify things. While it looks like an index or passive portfolio spreads risks across the market, it is surprising how concentrated indexes have become, leaving investors with sector bets.
Company profits have not improved for many years but higher valuations have been driven by falling rates and excess liquidity. Conditions do not suit a value and contrarian manager but here are some opportunities.
For long-term investors, the most important factor driving returns is the price paid to acquire a stock. Emerging Markets stocks exhibit favourable valuations on both an absolute and relative basis.
Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.
When we look back five years from now, which companies will we regret not having bought at today’s prices? The next opportunities come from focusing on the long term, not the next few months.
We tend to call any change a 'disruption', but the vast majority of so-called disruptive technologies are variations on a theme. Many innovations are really high-risk, low-probability investments.
The market is asking how much are you willing to pay to feel safe, and the answer is: a lot. Perhaps a better question to ask is: how much are you risking in your quest to feel comfortable?
When researchers identified the benefits of investing in 'value', index providers and asset managers created products to harness the 'value' factor. But is the construction of the index correct?
How does a style that relies on investing in stocks the market dislikes sustain itself over time, when inevitably investors go through difficult markets until the value is realised? It’s not an easy way to run a fund manager.
Investors do not ask enough questions of their fund managers before they commit money. It's worth at least knowing whether a long-term view is taken rather than the easier road of jumping in and out of markets.
Bonds have performed well for most of the last 30 years with a tailwind of easing liquidity, but the current high prices makes them vulnerable to losing their protective qualities.
The idea that stocks should be divided into growth and yield categories diverts us from fundamentals. Intrinsic value eventually manifests in higher cash flow, whether or not share price appreciation anticipates it.
Macro trends are almost impossible to forecast, and picking undervalued shares with an eye to the long term is a better way. But often, stock selection requires resilience in the face of criticism.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.