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Whitepapers: Franklin Templeton

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Walking, not running, the last mile of inflation

The US economy shows strength, with a tight job market and solid wage growth, while the European economy remains stagnant, and both central banks are looking for continued evidence of lower inflation before starting their easing cycle.

The state of investment and wealth management in 2023-2024

Reflections from Franklin Templeton’s latest Industry Advisory Services Annual Survey, which aims to help investors understand how the wealth and investment management industry is changing and better prepare them for the future.

Global Investment Outlook: Flexibility, resilience and opportunity

Trees are an appropriate metaphor for investing. When nurtured, they grow gradually but inexorably. Upon maturity they yield their bounty—shade, nuts and sweet fruit. Yet some trees withstand adversity better than others.

Energy transition: Accelerating investment opportunities

Arguably, humanity’s greatest current challenge is the need to shift to low and net-zero carbon in a little less than 30 years. These challenges create investment opportunities as investors have a critical role given the capital required to fund this transition.

Fixed Income Views: Soft landing? Central banks trying to thread the needle

Franklin Templeton's Fixed Income team no longer expects a technical recession in the US and believes the trajectory of disinflation in both the US and euro area will flatten. Thus, central banks are likely to keep rates higher for longer.

Macro Perspectives: A changing inflation and growth climate

Although inflation will continue to be an issue for the next 6–12 months and the global economic recovery is uneven, there are investment opportunities ahead.

Mid-year 2023 global outlook: Time to engage more fully

For this mid-year outlook, the theme continues to be the attractiveness of investments beyond cash including fixed income, equities and alternatives.

Green steel

The steel industry is one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions. The main challenge in producing green steel is cost. This report focuses on the process to produce green steel, breaking down the costs and technology used.

Add banking stress to rising rates and recession may be baked in

The Fed appears to be staying the course on its rate-hiking path, putting banks and other interest-rate sensitive sectors under further strain. These rate hikes plus recent bank failures suggest recession is likely baked into the mix.

Testing infrastructure’s resilience amid heightened uncertainties

ClearBridge Investments, part of Franklin Templeton, has tested the short- and long-term return profiles of infrastructure against a backdrop of changing macroeconomic factors, examining infrastructure’s strength in different inflation, GDP growth and bond yield scenarios.

Global investment outlook: this isn’t 2008

Today’s banking ‘crisis’ is far less severe than 2008, and it’s not systemic. Indeed, the quality of overall bank assets and capital ratios are dramatically better. Central banks are now coordinating globally to offer banks daily access to the capital they need to operate smoothly.

Reporting season wrap: Looking over the edge

As we stand on the edge of a mortgage rate cliff and a potential Australian recession, how did these important market developments impact the shape of company results in Australia’s February 2023 company reporting season?

Fixed Income's 2022 ESG engagement report

This report shares details and results of the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team's engagement with bond issuers during the calendar year of 2022 to better understand each other’s interests, ambitions, and risks.

Innovation Insights Quarterly Q1 Jan 2023

In their latest Innovation insights, Franklin Equity Group examines five advancements they found interesting this quarter from renewables accessing deeper waters to artificial intelligence in the digital realm.

Disruptive Technology Views: Web3

This edition of Disruptive Technology Views explores the megatrend “expanding power of the crowd”; explains Web3 “tokenomic” supply; and introduces “QuantaVenture” capital, a new approach to venture capital.

Inflation now versus 1960s-1970s experience

US inflation today is the worst since that of the late-1960s and 1970s, but the current experience differs from that previous period in important respects, including economic growth, wages, and price disparities.

Seeking income in a rising rate world

This paper shares thoughts on how high inflation, rising interest rates and a growing risk of a significant economic slowdown underscore the importance of casting a wider net for income generating assets.

Actively navigating economic and geopolitical shocks

This paper reviews the performance of equity and other asset class allocations in the wake of geopolitical events and demonstrates the benefit of diversified asset allocations to help weather such storms.

Six Common Misconceptions About Inflation

An analysis of inflationary forces using both recent data and historical examples, to dispel common misconceptions regarding the dynamics of inflation related to money supply, GDP, employee wages, labor force, supply chain, Fed Reserve policy and more.

Awakening Japan’s Sleeping Giant

What is behind the recent rise in Japan’s sovereign bond yields, and what are the implications for the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate and yield curve control policies?

Russia: Geopolitical risk reaches crisis point

As geopolitical tension mounts around Russia and Ukraine, the Global Emerging Markets team shares some insights into the risks and what it means for the portfolio.

Global Outlook 1Q 2022

Western Asset expects global growth to decelerate from the robust 2021 levels as we move into 2022. Contributing factors include a sharp pullback in global fiscal stimulus, a reduction in monetary accommodation by key central banks, and the persistence of secular-related headwinds.

Global Inflation Update

With headline inflation remaining elevated globally we revisit the specific inflation drivers in three major economies: the US, eurozone and UK. We highlight differences in recent inflationary impulses, our expectations for inflation trajectories over the coming months and the potential implications for bond yields.

2022 Investment Outlook

Martin Currie highlights a supportive backdrop for equities markets in 2022 driven by a prolonged positive economic cycle – although the Omicron variant has the potential to disrupt.

The Long View: The Peak in Peaks

In the latest ‘Anatomy of  a Recession’ series, ClearBridge Investments says that as the global economy normalises, U.S. growth should weather the peak in peaks and remain above trend for the following 12 to 18 months.

Martin Currie: Investing to improve lives

At Martin Currie our purpose is Investing to Improve Lives. Whether as stewards of our clients’ capital, as investors in equity markets or as members of our local and global communities, we never forget the responsibilities our work brings.

Western Asset: Five reasons why fixed-income still matters

In today’s low-rate environment, do bonds still provide effective diversification in a traditional asset allocation framework? Are the reasons for owning fixed-income the same as they have been in the past? The short answer to both questions is a resounding 'Yes'.

Emerging markets disrupt, innovate, and power transformation

Emerging markets have innovative companies capable of disrupting established industries, changing the course of a country’s economic outlook, while generating strong growth and returns.

Inflation, rotation and opportunities

With predictions of above-average economic growth globally, record fiscal and monetary economic stimulus and increased likelihood of inflation, we are entering an economic environment never seen before.

Western Asset: Will inflation finally turn up in 2021?

There has been a wave of speculation recently about the inevitability of rising inflation, given the enormous amount of both fiscal and monetary stimulus unleashed to counter the ill effects of COVID-19’s economic impact. While the specifics are new, we’ve seen similar concerns over the last 40 years, and we are not convinced this time is any different.

Western Asset's Global Outlook 2021

Western Asset’s base case outlook is for a U-shaped global economic recovery, with an expectation that short-term growth challenges will be followed by a continuation of the global rebound thereafter.

Global Innovations Driving Zero Carbon Cement

There is currently no low-carbon replacement for cement’s core ingredient—called clinker—that also matches the scale of growing global demand. This puts cement in a tug-of-war between two global trends: improving standards of living and decarbonising national economies.

Water disruption: investment risk from multiple angles

Water itself isn’t just an economic policy issue and risk arising from population growth and climate change. This paper outlines how water is impacting the day-to-day operations of investee companies and how they are thinking through their own business models and business risk.

Airlines: After the COVID nosedive

In March 2020, air travel as the public knew it changed forever due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The challenges faced by airlines are significant but there are reasons to invest selectively now.

The power of dividends

Martin Currie recently wrote to all the major companies in the firm's Australian income strategies. The objective of the letter is to emphasise the value of dividends for retirees, charities and institutions at this difficult moment.

What the recovery might look like post COVID-19

Brandywine Global's latest recap of current market conditions and an examination of what the post-Covid-19 recovery may look like based on a selection of charts.

How EM companies are evolving new profit pools

Many emerging market (EM) companies are evolving new profit pools by reimagining and reconfiguring their business models through advanced technological integration.

Western Asset's Global Outlook, Q2 2020

Western Asset’s base case outlook is for a longer, U-shaped global economic recovery premised on the view that near-term growth will be severely impacted, but that this shortfall will prove to be largely transitory as policymakers push to resuscitate economic activity.

The Fed’s latest initiative is a game-changer

The Fed policy initiatives introduced in recent weeks together represent a game-changer for the economy - in ways that go beyond what you might think.

The devil is in the details: does responsible investing really deliver?

An estimated US$30 trillion of AUM today takes into account some form of ESG data, but does responsible investing deliver only perceived value or can it really enhance overall risk/return?

Global credit cycle built for endurance

Investors continue to debate where we are in the global credit cycle and wonder if the party is about to end. This paper delves into the implications for portfolio positioning.

Why now is the right time for value

There have been recent comments in the market that value investing is broken. Given how expensive the market has become, is now actually the time to overweight the style?

Solving for the retiree problem with innovation

The solution to Australia’s retirement problem requires a focus on providing for a ‘sufficient income for life’, rather than recommending low yield / low growth or so-called 'low risk' asset allocations.

Disruptive technologies drive new opportunities in commercial real estate

  • 22 August 2018

Technology increasingly connects the digital and physical worlds. Billions of people now access products and services in a highly efficient manner. The growing pervasiveness of the internet and advanced industries presents both opportunities and challenges for commercial real estate (CRE) investors.

Bond wars: The battle of alpha and beta

  • 2 January 2018

With global equities moving to new highs, global bond yields declining and broad market volatility skimming record lows, the investment decision for investors is now more critical than ever.

Amazon: Lessons from the US for Australian retail

  • 5 December 2017

The e-commerce giant’s entry into the Australian market has been a constant source of discussion for several months, and the likelihood of a large disruption for our local retailers appears to have already been priced in.

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

The greatest investor you’ve never heard of

Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

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