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2 January 2026
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At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
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Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 643 2
Here are my 20 favourite Firstlinks articles from 2025, including ‘Which generation had it the toughest?’, ‘The case for the $3 million super tax’, and ‘Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly’.Read More.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
Trump may be right on two trends: nations are shifting from aspiration to essentials and from global dependence to self-reliance, pushing capital toward security, infrastructure, and energy.
Critics like Clime's John Abernethy have questioned many aspects of defined benefit pensions for public servants. This is an attempted rebuttal, suggesting these pensions aren't the problem they're made out to be.
Search is changing fast. AI tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini are reshaping how we find information, opening new opportunities for innovation, user engagement, and future revenue growth.
The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
The Liberal Party has released an energy policy that favours the economy over emissions reduction targets and while it's a good start, more can more done to get the right balance to ensure our continued prosperity.
Economic experts, including the RBA, get plenty of forecasts wrong, but that doesn't make such forecasts worthless. The key isn't to predict perfectly – it's to understand the range of possibilities and plan accordingly.
Today’s consumers are walking contradictions - craving simplicity in an age of abundance, privacy in a public world. These tensions tell a bigger story about what people truly value and why.
During the pandemic, the RBA’s balance sheet swelled to over $600 billion, which is now steadily shrinking. This explores the implications for financial markets, interest rates, and the economy’s path forward.
The Future Fund says it will not be paying defined benefit pensions until at least 2033 - raising as many questions as answers. This points to an increasingly uncertain future for Australia's sovereign wealth fund.
Gold has had a remarkable 2025, with the spot price likely to post its strongest return since 1971. This explores the key factors that will shape the outlook for the yellow metal next year, and long-term.
Aircraft constraints are holding back global air travel. Those constraints should soon ease which combined with a structural boom in travel demand could be a boon for global airport stocks.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.
Retail real estate is outperforming as a cyclical upswing, robust demand and constrained supply drive renewed investor interest. This looks at the outlook and the continued rise of convenience assets.
The ASX seems a market split between the haves and have nots, or those with growth and momentum and those without. In this environment, opportunity favours those willing to look beyond the obvious.
With fertility rates at a record low, many say young people aren’t having kids because they’re too expensive. Turns out, it’s not that simple and there are likely other factors at play.
The $3 million super tax has many rethinking their super strategies, especially issues of wealth transfer on death. This reviews the taxes on super benefits and offers investment alternatives.
For much of Australia’s history, each new generation has been better off than the last: better jobs and incomes as well as improved living standards. A new report assesses whether this time may be different.
Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.
Trusts offer flexibility and asset protection, but in relationship breakdowns, courts can 'look through' them. Understanding control, purpose, and asset origins is key to preserving trust benefits in family law disputes.
Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid.
As investors seek to diversify their portfolios, more are looking at private equity to help them do that. Neuberger Berman's Gabriel Ng runs through the different types of private equity and their benefits and trade-offs.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
As more money looks for a home outside the US, Asia may soon get some love. Fidelity's Anthony Srom outlines the best places in Asia to invest, including in Chinese consumer names, Indian financials, and Thailand.
Stockland’s development chief discusses supply constraints, government initiatives and the impact of Japanese-owned homebuilders on the industry. He also talks of green shoots in a troubled property market.
Portfolio Manager Ted Alexander outlines the changes that he's made to Platinum's International Fund portfolio since taking charge in March, while staying true to its contrarian, value-focused roots.
Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?
It’s the season for 2026 market forecasts. Predicting the short term is tough though, and it’s often best to look at long-term data to guide your investment decisions. A new report can help with that.
My 13 biggest lessons from 2025 including dinosaurs die, good companies don’t necessarily make good investments, Baby Boomers are driving the economy, don't fight interest rates, and history is rhyming in real time.
Does money buy freedom? Many people dream of having enough wealth to do what they want when they want. It may not be as simple as that though, and this looks at what money can and cannot buy.
Thank you for the hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey and to maximise the sample size, we’re leaving it open until this Sunday. Here is an overview of the results so far.
Dementia has now overtaken heart disease as Australia’s leading cause of death. An ageing population plays a role, but stronger public education is needed to help prevent new cases.
What should you do if you think this market is grossly overvalued? While it’s impossible to predict the future, it is possible to prepare, and here are three tips on how to best construct your portfolio for what’s ahead.
Leveraged ETFs seek to deliver some multiple of an underlying index or reference asset’s return over a day. Yet, they aren’t even delivering the target return on an average day as they’re meant to do.
Both active and passive investing can work, but active investment doesn’t in the way it is practised by many fund managers and passive investing doesn’t work in the way most end investors practise it. Here’s a better way.
How does a strategy built around systematically buying-and-holding a basket of the market's biggest losers perform? It turns out pretty well, so why don't more investors do it?
The structure of many dividend ETFs leads to lacklustre or non-existent dividend growth. Balancing high yields with long-term dividend growth is essential for effective income investing.
One of Buffett's most successful investments has been a confectionery company that he bought more than 50 years ago. The investment demonstrates that stocks need not be growth companies to create fortunes.
Shani Jayamanne takes a deliberately uninterested approach to investing. She outlines the technical and circumstantial reasons for why she goes against the grain and focuses on the real drivers of investment success.
launches new fund series and invests in Westfield Chermside.
expands Tier 2 subordinated debt ecosystem with new Australian-first ETF.
lists second active ETF - XX20.
You can’t freely withdraw your super before 65. You need to meet certain legal conditions tied to your age, whether you’ve retired, or if you're using a transition to retirement option.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
Borrowing to invest provides greater exposure to the share market and its potential gains or losses, as well as more associated franking credits. However, there are additional risks and costs to consider.
For those with the patience to own an investment as volatile as the AI sector, buying and holding a stock basket might make sense. However, based on internet stocks’ history, you need not rush to do so.
Stocks always outperform bonds in the long-term, right? New research challenges that assumption, raising questions about historical financial data, and forecasts for future performance from the two largest asset classes.