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22 January 2026
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The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
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Claims that Division 296 double-taxes franking credits misunderstand imputation: franking credits are SMSF income, not company tax, and ensure earnings are taxed once at the correct rate.
For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.
Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?
Cyclical stocks surge in upswings but falter in downturns. Compounders - reliable, scalable, resilient businesses - offer smoother, superior returns over the full investment cycle for patient investors.
A-REITs are often viewed as passive rental vehicles, but today’s index tells a different story. Development and funds management now dominate earnings, materially increasing volatility and risk for the sector.
Dairy farming offers real asset exposure, steady income and long-term growth, yet remains overlooked by investors seeking diversification beyond traditional asset classes.
Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 646 5
There’s one surprising area of the market that’s been left behind over the past year: quality stocks. Not only in Australia, but globally. The likes of REA, CAR Group, and Aristocrat may offer opportunities in an overpriced market.Read More.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns.
It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.
Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.
China has flooded the world with electric cars and solar panels to offset the economic drag from a weak domestic property market. How long can this go on, and what are the implications for commodities and Australia?
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
The Liberal Party has released an energy policy that favours the economy over emissions reduction targets and while it's a good start, more can more done to get the right balance to ensure our continued prosperity.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
We're about to add another million people to cities like Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne. How many hospitals and other essential infrastructure are needed to cater to a million more people? This breaks down the numbers.
Gold has had a remarkable 2025, with the spot price likely to post its strongest return since 1971. This explores the key factors that will shape the outlook for the yellow metal next year, and long-term.
Aircraft constraints are holding back global air travel. Those constraints should soon ease which combined with a structural boom in travel demand could be a boon for global airport stocks.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.
With fertility rates at a record low, many say young people aren’t having kids because they’re too expensive. Turns out, it’s not that simple and there are likely other factors at play.
The $3 million super tax has many rethinking their super strategies, especially issues of wealth transfer on death. This reviews the taxes on super benefits and offers investment alternatives.
For much of Australia’s history, each new generation has been better off than the last: better jobs and incomes as well as improved living standards. A new report assesses whether this time may be different.
Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.
Trusts offer flexibility and asset protection, but in relationship breakdowns, courts can 'look through' them. Understanding control, purpose, and asset origins is key to preserving trust benefits in family law disputes.
Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid.
As investors seek to diversify their portfolios, more are looking at private equity to help them do that. Neuberger Berman's Gabriel Ng runs through the different types of private equity and their benefits and trade-offs.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
As more money looks for a home outside the US, Asia may soon get some love. Fidelity's Anthony Srom outlines the best places in Asia to invest, including in Chinese consumer names, Indian financials, and Thailand.
Stockland’s development chief discusses supply constraints, government initiatives and the impact of Japanese-owned homebuilders on the industry. He also talks of green shoots in a troubled property market.
Portfolio Manager Ted Alexander outlines the changes that he's made to Platinum's International Fund portfolio since taking charge in March, while staying true to its contrarian, value-focused roots.
Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?
Rio Tinto is proposing a $300 million merger with Glencore soon after BHP tried to nab Anglo American. The commodities boom is heating up but will the mining giants incinerate money like past cycles or is this time different?
Stocks bounced hard off April lows, gold hit record highs and even bonds gained – 2025 was a year where it was hard not to make money. This breaks down the year and how to best position portfolios for 2026 and beyond.
Here are my 20 favourite Firstlinks articles from 2025, including ‘Which generation had it the toughest?’, ‘The case for the $3 million super tax’, and ‘Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly’.
It’s the season for 2026 market forecasts. Predicting the short term is tough though, and it’s often best to look at long-term data to guide your investment decisions. A new report can help with that.
My 13 biggest lessons from 2025 including dinosaurs die, good companies don’t necessarily make good investments, Baby Boomers are driving the economy, don't fight interest rates, and history is rhyming in real time.
Does money buy freedom? Many people dream of having enough wealth to do what they want when they want. It may not be as simple as that though, and this looks at what money can and cannot buy.
Leveraged ETFs seek to deliver some multiple of an underlying index or reference asset’s return over a day. Yet, they aren’t even delivering the target return on an average day as they’re meant to do.
Both active and passive investing can work, but active investment doesn’t in the way it is practised by many fund managers and passive investing doesn’t work in the way most end investors practise it. Here’s a better way.
How does a strategy built around systematically buying-and-holding a basket of the market's biggest losers perform? It turns out pretty well, so why don't more investors do it?
The structure of many dividend ETFs leads to lacklustre or non-existent dividend growth. Balancing high yields with long-term dividend growth is essential for effective income investing.
One of Buffett's most successful investments has been a confectionery company that he bought more than 50 years ago. The investment demonstrates that stocks need not be growth companies to create fortunes.
Shani Jayamanne takes a deliberately uninterested approach to investing. She outlines the technical and circumstantial reasons for why she goes against the grain and focuses on the real drivers of investment success.
February Webinar Topic - Division 296 tax update: tax on those with mo..
May Webinar Topic - Preparing for 30 June Date: Tuesday 19 May 2026Tim..
August Webinar Topic - When should I call time on my SMSF? Date: Tuesd..
Quarterly trustee webinar, 10 Feb 2026 on Division 296 tax.
launches new fund series and invests in Westfield Chermside.
expands Tier 2 subordinated debt ecosystem with new Australian-first ETF.
You can’t freely withdraw your super before 65. You need to meet certain legal conditions tied to your age, whether you’ve retired, or if you're using a transition to retirement option.
Australia boasts one of the world's highest dividend yielding sharemarkets, providing substantial benefits to investors and retirees. Despite this, individuals often stretch for even more yield, to their detriment.
Borrowing to invest provides greater exposure to the share market and its potential gains or losses, as well as more associated franking credits. However, there are additional risks and costs to consider.
For those with the patience to own an investment as volatile as the AI sector, buying and holding a stock basket might make sense. However, based on internet stocks’ history, you need not rush to do so.
Stocks always outperform bonds in the long-term, right? New research challenges that assumption, raising questions about historical financial data, and forecasts for future performance from the two largest asset classes.